IBA highlights at risk aircraft types as COVID-19 drives oversupply, fleet reductions and value falls

IBA, the independent aviation consultant, has identified a number of aircraft types that are at greatest risk of being placed in storage, as the effects of Covid-19 drive aircraft oversupply and falls in fleet sizes, asset values and lease rates.

Using data from IBA.iQ, the platform for aviation intelligence, IBA’s analysts have calculated that approximately 3,400 narrowbody aircraft could be prematurely withdrawn from service over the next 20 months – a net reduction of 7.5% of the total narrowbody fleet. These withdrawals are driven by a blend of factors including airline failures, airline fleet restructurings driven by current market conditions, as well as scheduled lease ends.

The narrowbody types most at risk are A320ceo and Boeing 737NG aircraft over 16 years old. Narrowbody aircraft set for almost universal withdrawal from service include the Boeing 717, 737 Classic and 757, and the MD-80 and MD-90.

IBA also calculates that 1,850 widebody aircraft could be withdrawn from service – a net reduction of almost 30% of the total widebody fleet. The factors determining the most at risk aircraft include cost of operation as well as age. This leads IBA to forecast the possibility of an almost universal withdrawal of the A380 from service over the next two years if demand forecasts bear out, along with older twin and four engine aircraft including the Airbus A300, A310 and A340 and Boeing 747 and 767. IBA also forecasts that A330 and Boeing 777 aircraft over 13 years old could be surplus to requirements. 

IBA forecasts that the market values of narrowbody aircraft types aged around three years could fall by between 6% and 12%, whilst the lease rates for those aircraft could drop by between 10% and 15%. The value of older narrowbody types of around aged 18 years could drop by between 16% and 29%, and the lease rates of types aged around 12 years could fall by between 16% and 18%.

The market values of young widebody aircraft aged around three years could drop by between 3% and 7%, and lease rates for aircraft of this type and age could fall by between 8% and 19%. Older widebody types aged around 12 years could drop in value by 11% to 25%, and their lease rates could fall between 13% and 17%.