Ryanair has posted full-year 2023 (FY23) PAT of €1.43 billion, compared to a previous-year loss of (€355 million), due to strong full-year traffic recovery, improving fares and advantageous fuel hedges. Scheduled revenue grew over 160% to €6.93 billion. Following a disappointing Q1 (when traffic was badly impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 Feb. 2022), strong travel demand through the remainder of the year saw traffic rise 74% at higher fares (+10% on pre-COVID). Ancillary sales delivered a solid performance, generating just under €23 per passenger (€3.84 billion). Total full-year revenue rose 124% to €10.78 billion. Total operating costs rose 75% to €9.20 billion, driven by higher fuel costs (+113% to €3.90 billion, offset by favourable fuel hedges and improved fuel burn as more Gamechangers entered the fleet), crew pay restoration and 74% traffic growth. Ex-fuel operating costs rose 54%, which was well below traffic growth, and unit costs (ex-fuel) were just €31 as Ryanair’s cost advantage over other EU competitors widened substantially as it predicted it would. The company’s fuel hedging (over 80% hedged at approx. US$64bbl) contributed significantly to the final full-year 2023 profit outcome, saving the group over €1.4 billion.
FY24 jet fuel requirements are almost 85% hedged at approx. US$89bbl (with a mix of forwards and caps) and 25% of H1 FY25 is covered at US$77bbl. Just over 90% of FY24 €/US$ opex is hedged at 1.08 and 38% of H1 FY25 is covered at 1.11. Our B-8200 “Gamechanger” order book is fully hedged at €/$ 1.24 which further lowers the cost of these new aircraft.
Ryanair has signed an agreement to purchase 300 new Boeing 737-MAX-10 aircraft (150 firm and 150 options), which is subject to AGM approval on September 14. These, fuel efficient, aircraft have 228 seats (21% more than our B737NGs) and phased deliveries between 2027 and 2033. The company expects 50% of the order will be used to replace older NGs, while the remainder will facilitate disciplined traffic growth to approx. 300m p.a. by FY34 (an 80% increase over FY23’s traffic). Given the strength of the Group’s balance sheet, its strong credit ratings and the two-year gap between the delivery of the final B-8200 “Gamechanger” in late December 2024 and the first MAX-10 in early 2027, the group anticipates that capex will be funded primarily from internal resources (although the group will remain opportunistic in its financing decisions). (£1.00 = €1.15/US$1.25 at time of publication).
