Airlines in Asia and the Pacific will acquire some 8,000 new passenger and cargo aircraft over the next 20 years, according to European aircraft manufacturer Airbus. Valued at US$1.2 trillion, the requirement represents one third of predicted global deliveries between now and 2028, with the region driving demand for larger aircraft types.
The manufacturer’s latest forecast for the region was presented on February 3rd at the Singapore Airshow by John Leahy, Airbus Chief Operating Officer, Customers.
In the passenger market Airbus predicts that traffic in the region will grow at an average annual rate of 5.9%, while cargo traffic will increase by 6.3% per year. This compares with a global average of 4.7% for passenger traffic and 5.2 for air freight. As a result of this growth and continuous fleet replacement, the region is expected to take delivery of some 880 very large aircraft, 2,570 twin aisle widebodies and 4,560 single aisle aircraft.
The high proportion of larger aircraft types reflects the concentration of populations around main urban centres in the region, generating high density traffic on key intra-regional routes, as well as to capacity constrained international destinations in Europe and North America. Meanwhile, demand for single aisle aircraft in the region is expected to accelerate in the coming years, driven by the growth of low cost carriers and opening of new routes between secondary destinations, especially in China, India and South East Asia.
In the cargo sector, the region will continue to dominate the global air freight market, with the dedicated freighter fleet operated by Asia-Pacific airlines growing five times to 1,500 aircraft. While many of these will be converted from passenger models, Airbus predicts that around 340 new production freighters will be delivered to the region over the 20 year period. These will be predominantly widebody aircraft and will represent 40% of expected global demand for new production freighters.
Presenting the details, John Leahy said that within 20 years the region would overtake the US and Europe as the world’s largest air transport market, with Asia-Pacific airlines carrying over 30% of global passenger traffic and around 40% of all air freight.
