Avolon expects 43,000 new aircraft to be delivered over the next 20 years

Avolon, the international aircraft leasing company, has issued its World Fleet Forecast, which projects growth in and changes to the global commercial jet fleet over the next twenty years. The analysis includes forecasts of aircraft deliveries, retirements, funding requirements and passenger-to-freighter conversions. Against a backdrop of 2.9% average annual growth in global economic activity over the next 20 years, Avolon is forecasting passenger traffic to increase by 5.4% per annum. Almost 43,000 aircraft will be delivered over the next 20 years, comprising 42,000 passenger aircraft and 800 factory-built freighters. Over 16,000 aircraft will be retired over the period, representing 64% of today’s fleet. Consequently, 40% of all deliveries will support fleet replacement, with the balance meeting the industry’s growth requirements. Twin aisle aircraft will account for 22% of total deliveries, but almost 50% of delivery value. Airbus and Boeing will account for 87% of all aircraft deliveries and 94% of delivery value. New deliveries will require US$4.3 trillion in financing, with 51% required for narrowbody aircraft, 44% needed for passenger widebodies, 4% for freighters and 1% for Regional Jets. Avolon expects the operating lessors’ share of financing for new deliveries to increase from 40% to 45% over the next ten years, and be close to 50% before the end of the forecast period.