The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released data figures for the month of November 2018, revealing that demand in terms of freight (metric) tonne kilometers (FTKs) was flat (0%) compared to November 2017, following 31 unbroken months of year-on-year increases. For the ninth month in a row, the rise in freight capacity growth, measured in available freight tonne kilometers (AFTKs), outstripped demand by 4.3% year-on-year.
At a time when international e-commerce sees continued growth, air freight demand has hit some turbulence with signs of weakness in global economic activity, all nations other than the U.S experiencing a contraction in export order books, reduced supplier delivery times in Asia and Europe, and weaker consumer confidence when compared to the beginning of 2018.
“Normally the fourth quarter is a peak season for air cargo. So essentially flat growth in November is a big disappointment. While our outlook is for 3.7% demand growth in 2019, downside risks are mounting. Trade tensions are cause for great concern. We need governments to focus on enabling growth through trade, not barricading their borders through punitive tariffs,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
Summary of Regional Performance for November 2018
North America, Middle East and Latin America reported year-on-year demand growth, while Asia Pacific, Europe and Africa all contracted.
Asia-Pacific airlines saw demand for air freight shrink by 2.3% year-on-year compared to 2017. Capacity increased by 3.1%.
North American airlines posted the fastest growth of any region for the second consecutive month with an increase in demand of 3.1% compared to the same period a year earlier. Capacity increased by 6.3%.
European airlines experienced a contraction in freight demand of -0.2% compared to the same period a year earlier. Capacity increased by 3.1% year-on-year.
Middle Eastern airlines’ freight volumes expanded 1.7% compared to November 2017. Capacity increased by 7.8% over the same period.
Latin American airlines’ freight demand rose 3.1% compared to the same period in 2017. Capacity increased by 2.0%. International year-to-date demand increased 6.3%.
African carriers saw freight demand decrease by 7.8% compared to the same month in 2017. This was the eighth time in nine months that demand contracted. Capacity shrank 7.4% year-on-year. Seasonally-adjusted international freight volumes are 7% lower than their peak in mid-2017, though still 28% higher than their most recent trough in late-2015.
