TP Aerospace
AviTrader sponsorship ad

IBA predicts long-term turbulence in narrow-body engine market

Pratt & Whitney GTF engine
© Pratt & Whitney GTF engine

In its latest webinar on the narrow-body engine market, IBA, a leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, has predicted that engine market values and lease rates are likely to increase given the current and ongoing supply chain issues and the more specific GTF engine problems. It expects the industry to suffer longer term due to growing pressure on shop visits and turnaround times, which are forecasted to increase. 

Led by IBA’s President Phil Seymour, Engine and Parts Manager Jamie Davey and Sarah Farrugia-Warren Senior Technical Manager – Powerplant, IBA’s expert team stressed that MRO shop visits are already under pressure from the post-COVID resource gap and the unscheduled GTF engine inspections. Previous-generation engines are still undergoing shop visits following deferred maintenance because of the global pandemic, resulting in high parts demand.

In the shorter term, turnaround times are likely to be strained further as Pratt & Whitney GTF engine issues increase pressure. The number of engines due to be inspected will cause a short-term spike in shop visit demand and the impact will be far-reaching, especially if the mandated inspections of the high-pressure turbine (HPT) create additional work once engines are opened up. Analysis from IBA Insight, which identifies aircraft and their fitted engines that are currently stored and parked for more than 60 days, suggests some of the operators most affected by the GTF issues include Go First with 88 engines, IndiGo which is not far behind with 80 engines, and Air China at 36. The list is exhaustive, and further affected airlines include large A320 operators such as Wizz Air.

“We have to remember that the engine OEMs are at the leading edge of design and material technology. The incredible advances in fuel burn saving over the decades has led, and will likely continue to lead, to some form of Airworthiness Directives action. It’s the price we pay for driving towards more efficient aircraft and engine combinations, with the overriding need for safe operations. We will have to see if the fuel burn benefits also create a long-term improvement in on-wing times and overall lower cost per hour/cycle”, added Phil Seymour, IBA’s President.

IBA predicts that, in 2024, there will be around 2,500 shop visits (excluding the GTF additional shop visits) followed by a significant jump to 3,500 visits in 2025. Comparatively, there have so far been 2,250 visits in 2023. This situation should come to a slight plateau between 2025 and 2027 at around 3,800 visits annually before peaking to over 4,000 visits in 2028. This will then start to decrease, ending the decade at just below 4,000 visits in 2030.

Alongside these GTF issues, IBA forecasts that there will be new engine production delays and USM supply chain demand will continue to affect values and lease rates. According to IBA, cost escalations continue to increase and CFM56 engines are now seeing market values in some cases increase above base value. Data from IBA Insight reveals that the market value for the CFM56/5B4/3 PIP was US$6.37m in the first half of 2023 and has risen to US$6.78m in the second half.

The market value for the PW1127G was US$11.27m in the first half of 2023 and has jumped to US$13.52m in the second half of this year. With this increase in cost coupled with high demand in the narrow-body market, IBA expects the market to become more volatile.

Turning to lease rates, IBA also expects increases in 2024 due to the supply / demand balance, expecting some engine lease rates to surpass 2019 rates in 2024. This includes the CFM56-5B which was US$62,000 pm in 2019 and is predicted to be US$78,000 pm in 2024 according to data from IBA Insight. Similarly, the V2500-A5 lease rate was $56,000 pm in 2019 and is expected to rise to $72,000 pm by 2024. (£1.00 = US$1.26 at time of publication).

Friday February 23, 2024
Grazia Vittadini and Dieter Vranckx
The Lufthansa Group is starting the next phase of its corporate development with a realignment of the Board of Directors. The restructuring coincides with the departure of four board members. According to schedule, the terms of office of Harry Hohmeister and ... Read More »
Friday February 23, 2024
Lilium Jet
Lilium N.V, the developer of the eVTOL Lilium Jet, has partnered with Star Charge to develop, customise and provide charging systems for its Lilium Jets. At the Singapore Airshow, the companies announced that Lilium placed a first order of 120 chargers for its... Read More »
Friday February 23, 2024
The acquired E190-jet will undergo disassembly at eCube in Wales, St Athan © Werner Aero
Werner Aero, LLC has successfully acquired an additional E-Jet aircraft, E190 MSN 481, through a transaction with Nordic Aviation Capital (NAC), a regional aircraft leasing company. The acquired aircraft will undergo disassembly at eCube in Wales, St Athan, wi... Read More »
Friday February 23, 2024
TotalEnergies has been supplying SAF for Airbus' aircraft deliveries in Toulouse since 2016 © Airbus
Airbus and TotalEnergies have inked a strategic partnership to tackle the hurdles of decarbonising aviation through sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). Aligned with the goal of achieving net carbon neutrality in aviation by 2050, the collaboration focuses on sig... Read More »
Friday February 23, 2024
Natalja Platonova, head of Magnetic Talents © Magnetic Engineering
Magnetic Engineering, a part of the Magnetic Group, has announced a significant expansion of its continuous airworthiness management organisation (CAMO) capabilities, now including the Airbus A220 and A350 aircraft. This expansion comes with the approval of th... Read More »
Friday February 23, 2024
Low-cost carrier Lynx Air said it has to cease operations © Shutterstock
Lynx Air, a Calgary, Canada-based airline dedicated to providing affordable air travel for Canadians, is set to cease operations on Monday, February 26. The low-cost carrier revealed this decision concurrently with the announcement of securing an initial order... Read More »
Thursday February 22, 2024
© LCI
LCI has announced a framework agreement for up to 21 of the latest-generation helicopters from Leonardo, comprising ten firm plus 11 options. The innovative new framework agreement covers the latest-generation light-intermediate AW169, intermediate AW139 and s... Read More »
Thursday February 22, 2024
Qantas
The Qantas Group maintains its commitment to customer experience and fleet expansion, achieving a AU$1.25 billion underlying profit before tax in the first half of FY24. Earnings, although 13% lower than the corresponding period in FY23, reflect a normalisatio... Read More »
Thursday February 22, 2024
SIAEC will provide component support coverage for Air India Group’s current fleet of Airbus A320-family aircraft
Mainboard-listed SIA Engineering Company (SIAEC) has announced the signing of an inventory technical management (ITM) agreement with Air India Group. Under this 12-year agreement, SIAEC will provide extensive component support coverage for Air India Group’s ... Read More »
Thursday February 22, 2024
Vietjet has signed an MoU with Airbus for 20 A330neos
Vietjet Air (Vietjet), the low-cost airline based in Hanoi, Vietnam, has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Airbus for the purchase of 20 A330-900 widebodies. When finalised, this will be Vietjet’s first-ever wide-body order. The ... Read More »
Thursday February 22, 2024
Rolls-Royce has announced a substantial increase in its annual profit for the previous year, surpassing expectations. The company anticipates a further surge in 2024, attributing it to increased flight activity of aircraft equipped with its engines, improvemen... Read More »
Thursday February 22, 2024
Boeing 737 MAX
Boeing has taken decisive action to replace the head of its 737 MAX programme, Ed Clark, following a concerning cabin panel blowout that has heightened the company’s efforts to restore its reputation. Clark, who also served as the general manager of Boei... Read More »
Wednesday February 21, 2024
AirFish WIG craft
ST Engineering has announced that its joint venture, ST Engineering AirX, has signed a letter of intent (LOI) with Eurasia Mobility Solutions (EMS) for up to ten AirFish wing-in-ground (WIG) craft, with an option for an additional ten. The agreement entails th... Read More »
Wednesday February 21, 2024
Telair
Satair, an Airbus Services company and Telair, a supplier of aerospace cargo loading solutions, have signed a multi-year agreement, extending their global exclusive distribution rights for commercial wide- and narrow-body aircraft and military applications. Th... Read More »
Wednesday February 21, 2024
Image of Airbus aircraft in STARLUX livery
STARLUX Airlines of Taiwan has placed a firm order for five all-new A350F freighters and three more A330neo wide-body aircraft. The agreement was signed at the Singapore Airshow by KW Chang, Chairman of STARLUX Airlines and Christian Scherer, CEO of the Commer... Read More »
Wednesday February 21, 2024
HoneywellFDR-CVR section recorder
AMETEK Singapore PTE has been named a Honeywell authorised repair centre (ARC) for solid-state flight data recorders and cockpit voice recorders for Airbus A320/A330/A340 and Boeing 737NG/737Max/777 aircraft. The five-year agreement covers full test and repair... Read More »
Wednesday February 21, 2024
Qantas
Qantas has announced two new board members, including a new Chairman, as part of its ongoing renewal. John Mullen will join the Qantas Board from July 1, 2024, as Non-Executive Director and Chairman Elect and will assume the role of Chairman ahead of the compa... Read More »
Wednesday February 21, 2024
Displaying the MoU are representatives from Fokker Services Asia and Embraer
Fokker Services Asia, a subsidiary of Fokker Services Group, is on track to become an authorized service centre for Embraer’s first-generation E-Jets family, as per the memorandum of understanding (MoU) announced on February 20. The agreement positions Fokke... Read More »
Wednesday February 21, 2024
A Breeze Airways A220 in Mobile, Alabama, U.S.A.
Breeze Airways (Breeze) has disclosed an order for ten additional Airbus A220-300 aircraft, bringing the airline’s total firm order for the aircraft type to 90, making Breeze the third-largest customer worldwide for the A220. “Thanks to its world-class per... Read More »
Tuesday February 20, 2024
Royal Brunei Airlines has ordered four 787 Dreamliners to revitalise its wide-body fleet
Boeing has announced that Royal Brunei Airlines has ordered four 787 Dreamliners to revitalise its wide-body fleet. The selection of the 787-9 aligns with Royal Brunei Airlines’ focus on long-term growth, sustainability and enhancing passenger comfort. S... Read More »
Avitrader MRO magazine - remove before flight - component maintenance

2023 MEDIA KIT

Aviation Media Pack

Learn more on how AviTrader can expand your market

Please contact

Tamar Jorssen
Vice President Sales & Marketing
+1.778.213.8543
[email protected]
Mailing Address
AviTrader Publications Corp.
Suite 305, South Tower
5811 Cooney Road
Richmond, BC V6X 3M1
Canada

Subscribe to the most widely accepted news source in the aviation industry!


Free Daily, Weekly and MRO Publications delivered to your Inbox!
News Alerts, Editorials, Marketplace, Executive Interviews +more

Select publications:

*we respect your privacy and AviTrader will not share your email address to any 3rd Parties.

Scroll to Top
AviTrader

FREE
VIEW