Worldwide air cargo demand was up by 13% in the first two months of this year, compared with the equivalent period last year, with demand continuing to surge from the Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins, and tonnages recovering from the normal Lunar New Year (LNY) seasonal dip, analysis by WorldACD Market Data reveals.
Preliminary figures for February indicate that air cargo tonnages were up 8%, year-over-year (YoY), although correcting for the extra day in February this year, the first 28 days of February were still up by 4% compared with February 2023, based on the more than 450,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data. That follows 17% higher tonnages in January, YoY, based on revised figures from WorldACD. But the variation in the timing of LNY each year – coming three weeks later this year on February 10, compared to January 22, last year – tends to make single-month comparisons complicated in the first two months, with combined two-month comparisons usually more meaningful. Combined figures for January and February 2024 show a 13% increase in tonnages this year compared with the equivalent two-month period last year, or 11% if the extra leap-year day is excluded.
Many of the patterns so far this year are similar to those of last year, although delayed by three weeks because of the later LNY, and with demand somewhat stronger this year than in the equivalent weeks last year. Like last year, three weeks on from LNY, demand has more or less recovered from the post-LNY dip, including from the key Asia Pacific origin region.
Looking specifically at the last full week, total worldwide tonnages were up 2% in week 9 ( February 26, to March 3.), compared with the previous week, following a 13% rebound in week 8. That followed declines of 11% and 10% the previous two weeks, immediately before and after LNY.
Expanding the comparison period to two weeks, tonnages in weeks 8 and 9 are up by 7% compared with the previous two weeks (2Wo2W), driven mainly by a post-LNY rebound in demand from Asia Pacific, where tonnages were up by 15%. Asia Pacific to Europe traffic and Asia Pacific to North America traffic rose by 3%, but intra-Asia Pacific (origin Asia Pacific to other Asia Pacific destinations) traffic saw a 44% recovery in weeks 8 and 9, compared with the combined tonnages in weeks 6 and 7, broadly mirroring last year’s patterns. Intra-Asia Pacific traffic tends to fall more sharply in the lead up to LNY and recover more rapidly after LNY. That strong recovery in intra-Asia Pacific traffic helped bring origin Asia Pacific tonnages 3% higher in weeks 8 and 9 than this time last year.
Other intercontinental routes seeing strong rebounds in tonnages, on a 2Wo2W basis, included inbound traffic to Asia Pacific from Europe (21%), from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) (16%), and from North America (8%).
