Boeing's 2024 World Air Cargo Forecast (WACF) anticipates robust growth for the air cargo industry, projecting an average annual increase of 4% in air cargo traffic through 2043. This sustained growth follows a post-pandemic resurgence, with current air cargo volumes already exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Darren Hulst, Boeing's Vice President of Commercial Marketing, attributes this momentum to air cargo's unique role as the “quickest and most reliable way to move goods.” Key drivers for continued demand include expanding global manufacturing, the rise of e-commerce and the growth of emerging markets.
To meet this rising demand, the global air cargo fleet is expected to grow significantly, increasing by two-thirds from its 2023 level of 2,340 freighters to around 3,900 by 2043. Nearly half of new freighter deliveries, both in production and converted models, will replace older jets with more fuel-efficient, modern aircraft, as many older models have been kept in service due to recent market pressures. The large wide-body freighter segment, driven by high-growth Asian markets, is set to nearly double, underscoring the vital role of these aircraft in meeting intercontinental shipping demands.
Asia is projected to lead global air cargo growth, with the Asia-Pacific fleet forecasted to nearly triple by 2043. This region will see the highest rate of traffic growth, especially in East and South Asia, due to expanding economies and rising consumer demand. Asian carriers are projected to receive 980 of the new deliveries, closely followed by North America with 955. Together, these two regions will account for more than two-thirds of global freighter deliveries.
India's domestic air cargo market is set to nearly quadruple, fuelled by the growth of e-commerce and the expansion of express delivery networks. Reflecting this trend, express carriers are expected to increase their share of the air cargo market from 18% to 25%, as their role in e-commerce and time-sensitive deliveries continues to expand, particularly in emerging markets.
