Airbus’ 2025 Cargo Global Market Forecast (GMF) projects the worldwide fleet of dedicated freighter aircraft will grow to 3,420 over the next 20 years, a 45% increase. This total will include 815 existing freighters and 2,605 additional ones.
Of the 2,605 new freighters, 1,530 will replace older aircraft, while 1,075 will support fleet growth. These will be divided into 1,120 small aircraft, 855 mid-size widebodies, and 630 large widebodies. In total, 1,670 will come from passenger aircraft conversions, while 935 will be new-build freighters.
World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and trade remain the main drivers of air cargo. With long-term trade forecast to grow at 2.7% annually, Airbus expects air cargo to expand at a rate of 3.3% per year, effectively doubling cargo volumes within two decades. Air cargo continues to prove essential, not only for supporting economies but also for connecting remote communities, transporting critical goods, and driving local business growth in emerging regions.
After rapid cargo fleet growth during the pandemic—driven by increased passenger-to-freighter conversions and minimal retirements of older models—Airbus forecasts that many of these ageing aircraft will now leave service. They will be replaced by newer, more fuel-efficient freighters such as the A350F, A320/A321, and A330 Passenger-to-Freighter (P2F) conversions.
Airbus also predicts growing diversity in trade lanes and air cargo flows as more Asia-Pacific countries develop into industrial centres. Likewise, GDP and demographic forecasts suggest that nations such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Vietnam will emerge as major consumer markets, shifting global air freight patterns.
Of the total 2,605 freighters required over the next 20 years, Asia-Pacific and North America will account for almost two-thirds of demand, needing around 850 and 920 aircraft respectively.
