IBA, the aviation market intelligence and advisory company, reports that North America is currently the only global region on track to meet the International Civil Aviation Organisation’s (ICAO) cleaner-energy goal for 2030: a 5% reduction in CO₂ emissions from international aviation through the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and other clean-energy sources.
All other regions, including Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, are forecast to fall short of the 5% CO₂ reduction target unless substantial additional SAF capacity is developed.
IBA calculated these figures by combining ICAO’s latest SAF production capacity data with its own independent global fuel demand forecasts to assess whether each region is developing sufficient supply to remain aligned with a credible long-term decarbonisation pathway. The analysis shows that North America’s existing SAF capacity is slightly below the level required for 2030, but when including facilities currently under construction, the region’s capacity meets and slightly exceeds ICAO’s notional requirement. This reflects the impact of sustained policy support in the United States, including the federal SAF Grand Challenge, tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act, and state-level measures such as the Low Carbon Fuel Standard, which together have helped unlock financing for a diverse range of SAF technologies.
In contrast, Europe, despite a comparatively strong project pipeline, remains below the capacity needed to achieve ICAO’s 5% benchmark. Although the ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation sets progressively rising SAF blend levels from 2025, stringent sustainability criteria and high production costs continue to limit supply growth.
However, IBA notes that the European Commission’s newly announced Sustainable Transport Investment Plan aims to address this shortfall by mobilising around €100 billion (US$117 billion) across aviation and shipping to accelerate the deployment of renewable and low-carbon fuels.
Regions including Latin America, Africa and the Middle East remain significantly behind the required levels, reflecting limited operational capacity and fewer advanced projects under development. IBA highlights that, for these regions to meet their long-term climate goals, rapid acceleration in investment and enabling policy frameworks will be necessary.
Globally, SAF facilities that are operational or under construction currently represent around 4.5% of global jet fuel supply in 2025, underscoring the substantial scale-up required as the sector works towards ICAO’s 2030 milestone and the broader 2050 net-zero commitments.
