Airbus expects global demand for aviation services to double from 2026, reaching more than US$420 billion by 2045, as the worldwide aircraft fleet expands and passenger numbers rise.
The services market, which supports the resilience of the aviation industry, is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.8%, supporting a global fleet of 45,550 aircraft by 2045. Over the same 20-year period, annual passenger numbers are expected to double to ten billion.
The expansion will create a cumulative requirement for 730,000 maintenance technicians, 660,000 pilots and 1.05 million cabin crew, bringing the total need for additional skilled personnel to more than 2.44 million.
Digital solutions and connectivity underpin all segments of the services market, helping airlines improve operational efficiency, reduce disruptions such as delays and cancellations, increase maintenance flexibility and provide real-time connectivity to meet passengers’ expectations of a seamless journey.
Airbus’ Global Services Forecast (GSF) identifies six key market segments: Off-wing maintenance is expected to reach US$217 billion by 2045, growing at a CAGR of 3.7%. Its value is forecast to double as the global fleet expands and ageing aircraft require more maintenance visits to repair facilities. Materials supply will also remain significant, reflecting demand for parts and repair services.
Maintenance operations support, a newly introduced segment covering timely and quality-assured inventory provision and engineering support to maintain airworthiness and aircraft reliability, is forecast to reach US$104 billion by 2045, with a CAGR of 4.3%.
On-wing maintenance, covering everything from light inspections to heavy maintenance checks, is projected to reach US$36 billion, growing at an annual rate of 2.8% in line with the expansion of the global fleet.
Digital and connectivity services are expected to be the fastest-growing segment, tripling in value over the next two decades to reach US$27 billion by 2045, representing a CAGR of 5.3%.
Modifications and upgrades, including cabin retrofits and the integration of modern technologies into older aircraft, are forecast to reach US$21 billion, growing at a CAGR of 2.6%. Training services are expected to reach US$17 billion, with annual growth of 3.1%, as the industry steps up efforts to attract and train the workforce needed to meet rising demand.
“As the global fleet doubles to more than 45,550 aircraft by 2045, we need to get ready. Airbus is expanding its role as an integral services partner to support our customers across the entire aircraft lifecycle,” said Cristina Aguilar Grieder, senior vice-president of customer services for commercial aircraft at Airbus.
“By integrating predictive operations, fleet modernisation, and advanced digital solutions, we are helping airlines ensure fleet availability, reliability, safety and long-term operational excellence,” she added.
Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), North America and China are expected to remain the largest aviation services markets by total demand over the next 20 years, while Asia, including Asia-Pacific, China and South Asia, is forecast to record the fastest growth.
The Airbus GSF covers aircraft from all manufacturers, focusing on passenger aircraft with more than 100 seats and freighters with a payload capacity exceeding ten tonnes.
