Honeywell’s 32nd Annual Outlook predicts strong demand for new Business Jets

Honeywell's 32nd annual Global Business Aviation Outlook projects robust demand for new business jets, estimating up to 8,500 new business jet deliveries valued at US$278 billion from 2024 to 2033. This forecast remains consistent with last year's ten-year projection. Notably, surveyed business aviation operators expressed higher five-year plans for new jet purchases, up by two percentage points from the previous year. However, the rate of fleet expansion nearly tripled in the 2023 survey compared to the average of the decade preceding 2020. These findings align with OEMs' reports to investors in Q2, indicating an increased delivery pace in the first half of 2023, in response to record-high backlogs.

Heath Patrick, President of Americas Aftermarket at Honeywell Aerospace, commented, “Our industry is on the upswing, with operators showing confidence in expanding their fleets at an unprecedented rate. We are particularly excited about fractional operators' plans to acquire several hundred new jets, including midsize and super-midsize jets powered by Honeywell HTF engines. There is also a growing focus on sustainability, as operators are committed to reducing carbon emissions. Moreover, new users in business aviation are driving a 500-aircraft demand increase and a 6% rise in flights over the next decade. Coupled with the anticipated double-digit increases in turbofan deliveries in 2023 and 2024, this reflects the industry's dedication to meeting the rising demand.”

Key Highlights from the 2023 Honeywell Global Business Aviation Outlook:

1. Anticipated new business jet deliveries in 2024 are expected to be 10% higher than in 2023, with expenditures forecasted to increase by 13%.
2. Five-year plans for new business jet purchases are up by two percentage points compared to the previous year, surpassing 2019 levels and accounting for 19% of the current fleet.
3. Fleet additions have increased for the third consecutive year, exceeding 3% of the fleet.
4. New jet deliveries and expenditures over the next decade are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2%, in line with expected global long-term economic growth.
5. Nearly two-thirds of respondents expect to maintain the same level of flying in 2024 compared to 2023; 29% anticipate flying more, while only 7% expect to fly less.
6. Large, long-range, and ultra-long-range aircraft classes are projected to account for approximately 69% of all new business jet expenditures in the next five years.
7. 4% of surveyed operators plan to retire an aircraft without replacement, double the rate recorded in 2022, with most citing the retirement or death of the aircraft owner as the reason.