Airbus forcasts over 31,000 new aircraft required in the next 20 years, worth US$4.6 trillion

In the next 20 years (2014-2033), according to Airbus’ Global Market Forecast, passenger traffic will grow annually at 4.7% driving a need for around 31,400 new passenger and freighter aircraft (100 seats and above) worth US$4.6 trillion. The passenger and freighter fleet will increase from today’s 18,500 aircraft to 37,500 by 2033, an increase of nearly 19,000 aircraft. Some 12,400 older less fuel efficient passenger and freighter aircraft will be retired. The economic growth rates in emerging markets such as Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, are outstripping more economically developed regions. One significant effect is that the middle classes in Asia are expected to quadruple in size by 2033 whereas globally they will double from 33% to 63% of world population. As a result of increased urbanisation and concentration of wealth, the number of aviation mega-cities worldwide will double to 91. These cities will be centres of world wealth creation with 35% of World GDP centred there, with more than 95% of all long haul traffic going to from or through them. In advanced economies, international traffic flows will be the fastest growing. In the emerging economies of Latin America, Africa and Asia Pacific, intra-regional and domestic flows will grow faster. For example, stimulation of new traffic coupled with increased accessibility of air travel will see India record the fastest growing domestic flows, becoming one of the 10 largest markets by 2033. “Aviation is growing impressively and our latest forecast confirms its long term growth. While mature aviation regions such as Europe and North America will continue to grow, Asia will stand out along with emerging markets for dynamic development,” said John Leahy, Airbus Chief Operating Officer, Customers. “This growth trend is confirmed by Chinese domestic traffic becoming the world’s number one aviation market within the next 10 years”.