IATA reveals decline in freight volumes has bottomed out

Encouraging figures have been released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) indicating that for global air freight markets, figures for November 2015 are slightly up on the low point in August and had expanded on those for October, leading to the conclusion that the previous decline had now bottomed out. Figures measured in Freight Tonne Kilometers (FTKs) were down 1.2% compared to November 2014 with regional figures for Europe (down 2%), N. America (down 3.2%) and Asia-Pacific (down 1.5%) making up approximately 80% of the global figures. Latin America (down 6.5%) and Africa (down 6%) performed less well, though conversely, the Middle East (up 5.4%) improved against last November’s figures which were very strong and consequently give a slightly skewed impression of this November’s figures.
According to Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director General and CEO, “The freight performance in November was a mixed bag. Although the headline growth rate fell again, and the global economic outlook remains fragile, it appears that parts of Asia-Pacific are growing again and globally, export orders are looking better. In fact, the downward trend in FTK volumes appears to be bottoming out. But there is a great deal of uncertainty. The current volatility of stock markets shows how much the health of the global economy – upon which air cargo depends – remains on a knife-edge.”
A brief summary of IATA’s figures are as follows:
Asia-Pacific carriers saw a slight fall in FTKs of 1.5% in November compared to November 2014, and capacity expanded 3.2%. Compared to October, volumes expanded by a strong 1.9%. Over recent months the declining trend in volumes has halted. Better demand in advanced economies is driving export growth in some countries, particularly in Japan.

European carriers reported weaker demand in November, down 2.0% compared to a year ago, and capacity rose 2.2%. Comparing November to October, the trend was flat.

North American airlines experienced a fall of 3.2% year-on-year and capacity grew 5.8%. A 0.4% expansion compared to October indicates that air cargo could be recovering, though export indicators are poor.

Middle Eastern carriers saw demand expand by 5.4%, and capacity rise 9.2%. However, the rate fell to less than half the 11.9% average growth for the year-to-date with the fall in the oil price is impacting some regional economies.

Latin American airlines reported a decline in demand of 6.4% year-on-year, and capacity expanded 1.9%. Economic and political conditions in were Brazil particularly weak. The comparison with October also showed a 1.4% contraction.