In its latest Global Market Forecast (GMF) Airbus predicts that the Russian airlines will need more than 900 passenger aircraft over the next 20 years in response to the strong growth in this market.
The Russian passenger aircraft fleet of 100 seats or more is expected to grow strongly from 528 aircraft in service in 2006 to nearly 950 by 2026. Over the next 20 years, Russia will require more than 900 aircraft to meet demand for aircraft replacement as well as fleet growth. This will represent a value at current list price of US$ 79 billion. These additional aircraft will include nearly 800 short haul – single-aisle aircraft which are currently prominent in the region's fleet and some 120 medium to long-range wide-body aircraft to satisfy international travel strong growth.
The growing demand for aircraft is the consequence of the strong growth of passenger traffic in Russia, which is expected to increase at a rate of 6,2% per year on average over the next 20 years, much faster than the world average of 4,9%.
This strong demand for air transport in Russia is driven by the impressive economic development in the region with domestic demand growth expected to be the highest in the world at over 10% for the next five years. In addition, the real disposable income per capita in Russia has grown six-fold over the last eight years. Hence, international travel has become affordable to 20 million additional Russian tourists today compared to 1999.
