After 3 years, Airports Commission set to deliver its decision on London airport expansion

For 25 years the political hot potato over the expansion of London’s airport capacity has been widely debated with substantial opposition for each and every proposal, predominantly through an attitude of nimbyism (not in my back yard). However the options seem to have narrowed to a choice between a new third runway at Heathrow Airport, and a second at Gatwick. Currently the UK aviation sector is worth GBP£32 billion and represents 2.1% of the nation’s economy. However London’s Heathrow and Gatwick, the country’s two biggest airports, are at or near maximum capacity and losing out heavily to other major international airports including Dubai and Amsterdam’s Schiphol, both of which are able to offer more flights to new destinations.
While the addition of a new runway at either airport is estimated to see the UK economy boosted by over £100million, any current plans for expansion will not bring either airport near the capabilities of two other major European hubs – Charles de Gaulle in Paris which has four runways, and Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport which has six. It is anticipated that it will be at least ten years before Britain can even begin to catch up with them considering the complexities of rules about building planning and consultation.
After three years of deliberation the government-appointed Airports Commission, the next few weeks will see it emerge with a decision as to which airport will be approved for expansion. Cost-wise, estimates are put at £19billion for a new runway at Heathrow, as opposed to £9billion for one at Gatwick. Though there seems to be a general leaning towards expansion at Heathrow, there are major concerns regarding air pollution with two of Heathrow’s 11 air monitors breaching limits in 2014 alone. The more rural location of Gatwick to the south of the city would certainly avoid such a problem.
One of the other major problems is more a political one, with a number of Conservative constituencies likely to be adversely affected by expansion at Heathrow. David Cameron, leader of the Conservative Party and PM will struggle to appease the voting public if Heathrow is extended, having vowed back in 2009 to those who would be affected by an expansion there that it would not happen – “no ifs, no buts” about it. While Gatwick still has room for some expansion, Heathrow is operating close to capacity, having established connections to emerging markets. In addition, Heathrow handles a quarter of all Britain’s exports and has appreciably superior public transport infrastructure compared to Gatwick. Both Heathrow and Gatwick are owned by companies prepared to invest in infrastructure with Heathrow’s shareholders including Spain’s Ferrovial and investment funds from Singapore, China and Qatar. Gatwick is owned by Global Infrastructure Partners.