Boeing has released its 2023 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), predicting a robust demand for commercial airplanes and services in the next 20 years. With international and domestic air travel rebounding to pre-pandemic levels, Boeing projects a global demand for 42,595 new commercial jets valued at US$8 trillion by 2042. This outlook, presented ahead of the Paris Air Show, indicates a positive resurgence in the aviation industry after the unprecedented disruption caused by the pandemic.
Key findings from the CMO highlight the following trends:
- Passenger traffic surpassing global economic growth of 2.6%.
- The global fleet expected to nearly double to 48,600 jets, growing at a rate of 3.5% per year.
- Airlines planning to replace approximately half of the existing fleet with new, fuel-efficient aircraft models.
Brad McMullen, Boeing's Senior Vice President of Commercial Sales and Marketing, expressed confidence in the aviation industry's resilience and adaptability. He mentioned how airlines have responded to challenges by simplifying their fleets, enhancing efficiency, and capitalising on resurgent demand. The 2023 CMO reflects the evolution of air travel, highlighting factors such as the growth of the middle class, sustainability investments, the rise of low-cost carriers and increasing air cargo demand driven by evolving supply chains and express cargo delivery.
Boeing's projections for regional demand and key trends until 2042 are as follows:
- Asia-Pacific markets are expected to represent over 40% of global demand, with China accounting for half of that total.
- South Asia's fleet is projected to expand at the world's fastest rate, over 7% annually, with India contributing to more than 90% of the region's passenger traffic.
- North America and Europe are forecasted to account for approximately 20% of global demand each.
- Low-cost carriers are anticipated to operate over 40% of the single-aisle fleet in 2042, a significant increase from 10% two decades ago.
- Russia and Central Asia, which were omitted from last year's CMO due to uncertainty, are now included in this year's forecast, representing about 3% of the global fleet by 2042 within the Eurasia region.
- Commercial Services projects a total served market worth US$3.8 trillion, encompassing digital solutions to enhance efficiency, parts and supply chain solutions, maintenance and modification services, as well as comprehensive training to support safety and the pilot and technician pipeline.
Boeing also anticipates demand for specific aircraft models during the 20-year forecast period:
- New single-aisle airplanes are expected to account for over 75% of all new deliveries, slightly higher than the 2022 outlook, with a total of more than 32,000 airplanes.
- New widebody jets will comprise nearly 20% of deliveries, amounting to more than 7,400 airplanes. These aircraft will enable airlines to explore new markets and enhance efficiency on existing routes.
- The air cargo sector is projected to outpace global trade growth, leading to a demand for 2,800 dedicated freighters. This includes over 900 new wide-bodies, along with converted narrow-body and wide-body models.
