China inbound tonnages slump as ‘Year of the Dragon’ starts

China's air import tonnages dropped sharply in the final few days leading up to the Lunar New Year (LNY) on February 10, along with intra-Asia Pacific traffic, contributing to a 12% fall in overall global tonnages, week on week, according to the latest figures from WorldACD Market Data. 

Analysis of week six (February 5-11th) indicates that China's inbound air cargo tonnages slumped by 15%, week on week (WoW), in the seven days to February 11, while the country's outbound tonnages held up better with a decline of just 2% as the LNY holiday week approached. That follows a surge in tonnages and rates ex-China in the previous two weeks, as shippers rushed to get goods shipped before the LNY holiday period. Both inbound and outbound tonnages are expected to fall further this week.

Average global rates held firm and rose slightly in week six, as they did in the equivalent week last year (week three) ahead of LNY, based on the more than 400,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD's data.

Initial analysis suggests that the patterns this year are broadly similar to last year, although global tonnages so far are well above last year's levels. But the relative timings of LNY are significantly different, with LNY falling on January 22, last year and a clearer picture will emerge by the end of this month.

Expanding the comparison period to two weeks, total combined tonnages for weeks five and six this year were down by 3%, globally, compared with the preceding two weeks (2Wo2W), with average rates up by 3% and capacity stable. Indeed, average rates were up, on a 2Wo2W basis, from all the main regions except North America (-2%), including rises of 7% ex-Africa and 6% ex-Asia Pacific and ex-Middle East & South Asia.

The 3% worldwide tonnage decline was largely driven by a 7% drop in tonnages from Asia Pacific origins – which, in turn, was mainly generated by a 17% fall in intra-Asia Pacific traffic, with the intra-Asia Pacific market apparently responding more quickly than the main long-haul markets to the arrival of the Lunar New Year holiday period. Indeed, ex-Asia Pacific tonnages to Europe and North America were down by just 4% and 2%, respectively, while tonnages to Middle East & South Asia rose by 3%. And on the much smaller lane from Asia Pacific to Central & South America, tonnages were up 15%, on a 2Wo2W basis.

Outbound tonnages from Europe also fell (2%), on a 2Wo2W basis, mainly due to a 13% drop for Asia Pacific. However, the other main origin regions recorded increases, including 4% ex-Africa, 3% ex-Middle East & South Asia, and 2% ex-North America. Tonnages from Central & South America also rose slightly (1%), driven by a spike (12%) in volumes to Europe, boosted by a late surge in flower exports ahead of Valentine's Day on February 14. 

Other significant 2Wo2W changes on the main intercontinental lanes included a 11% drop from North America to Asia Pacific, balanced by a 12% rise from North America to Central & South America. Ex-Middle East & South Asia tonnages to Asia Pacific fell by 11%, but rose by 6% to Europe, accompanied by a 10% rise in average rates on that lane. That surge to Europe from Middle East & South Asia most likely reflects conversion of some Asia-Europe ocean freight to sea-air tonnages, due to the ongoing disruptions to container shipping in the Red Sea.