European and US airlines could remove more frequencies this winter and ground more aircraft than usual as high fuel costs make weaker services uneconomic, aviation analyst John Strickland has warned.
Strickland, Director of JLS Consulting, made the prediction during a World Aviation Festival webinar on July 16, where he discussed how the aviation industry is responding to the current jet fuel crisis.
“No matter how much airlines reduced prices to stimulate demand, they still wouldn’t be covering the cost of the higher price of fuel. And I think we’ll see more planes on the ground as a result,” he said.
Airlines typically reduce capacity during the winter as seasonal demand weakens, often using lower fares to stimulate bookings. However, Strickland believes elevated fuel prices will make it harder for carriers to justify operating marginal routes this year.
“I think what we’ll see this winter is a higher level of cancellations,” he said. “I don’t see airlines suddenly cutting prices left, right, and centre in order to stimulate demand.”
He added that some markets and cabin classes have already experienced larger fare increases than others, while the impact on individual airlines depends on their fuel hedging strategies and their ability to pass higher costs on to passengers.
The warning comes as the International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts fuel costs will rise by nearly 40% to US$350 billion in 2026, with fuel accounting for 31.4% of total airline operating expenses.
Despite the pressure, Strickland said airlines have so far avoided the immediate supply disruption some had feared, with many carriers securing alternative fuel supplies or relying on hedging strategies to cushion the impact of short-term price increases.
According to Strickland, the number of services removed from schedules has so far remained relatively modest. However, he expects those decisions to become more difficult once the peak summer travel season ends, as airlines continue to review booking trends and route performance to determine which frequencies remain commercially viable.
Strickland will continue the discussion at the World Aviation Festival, taking place from October 13-15, 2026, in Lisbon.
