Boeing forecasts a $3.2 trillion market for new commercial airplanes over the next two decades, driven by an increasing demand for airplanes to replace older, less efficient aircraft. The Boeing 2008 outlook calls for a market of 29,400 new commercial airplanes (passenger and freighter) by 2027, with a balanced demand in aircraft by region. The forecast takes into account the industry's near-term challenges, including a slowing worldwide economy, surging fuel prices, slowing traffic growth in some markets, and concerted action by airlines to balance costs and revenues.
The influence of current market conditions is clearly reflected in the 2008 outlook, with replacement airplanes taking a greater share of demand (43%) than previously forecast (36%) — due to the loss of economic viability of older aircraft in light of higher fuel costs. In addition, Boeing is forecasting a slightly smaller fleet size at the end of the 20-year period (35,800) than predicted in the previous outlook (36,400). Compared with today's world fleet of 19,000 units, this represents an annual increase of 3.2% per year — the same as the estimated economic growth rate.
Also noteworthy is the fact that as a result of strong orders the last three years, more than 30 percent of the forecast is already in backlog.
