Boeing forecasts a $3.2 trillion market for new commercial airplanes over the next 20 years and takes into account the industry’s near-term realities, including a global economic recession, declining passenger and cargo traffic, and unpredictable fuel prices. The Boeing 2009 Current Market Outlook (CMO), which was released in London June 11th, foresees a market for 29,000 new commercial passenger and freighter airplanes by 2028.
Boeing analysis shows that over time, the commercial airplanes market will stabilize and economic growth will return. Boeing expects passenger traffic to grow at an average rate of 4.9% each year for the next 20 years. Demand globally remains strong for new, more efficient commercial airplanes in response to high fuel prices, aging fleets and environmental concerns. The U.S. and European markets will see more replacement airplanes as less-efficient jets are retired. Robust growth in China, the Middle East, India and other emerging markets with dynamic populations and growing incomes will lead toward a more balanced airplane demand worldwide.
Boeing predicts that airlines will grow by responding to their passengers’ preference for more flight choices, lower fares and direct access to a wider range of destinations. This means that they will focus on offering more flights using more efficient airplanes, rather than on using significantly larger airplanes.
Single-aisle airplanes will have the largest market share (67%) by number of units, driven by the large European and North American domestic markets and growth in local markets in Asia Pacific.
Twin-aisle airplanes will have the largest market share by investment $, with 40% of demand coming from Asia Pacific and 23% from Europe.
The growing Asia Pacific region will command the largest market in both units and value with 31% (8,960) of the units and 36% of the value ($1.13 trillion). Air travel to, from and within the Asia Pacific region will grow from a 32% share of the world air travel market to 41% over the 20-year period.
