IATA 20-year forecast sees passenger numbers doubling to 7.8 billion

In the release of the recent update to the International Air Transport Association 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast, passenger numbers traveling in 2036 are expected to reach 7.8 million, nearly double the 4 billion passengers that are expected to travel during 2017, based on a 3.6 percent average Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR).
According to IATA’s Director and CEO, Alexandre de Juniac: “All indicators lead to growing demand for global connectivity. The world needs to prepare for a doubling of passengers in the next 20 years. It’s fantastic news for innovation and prosperity, which is driven by air links. It is also a huge challenge for governments and industry to ensure we can successfully meet this essential demand.”
Asia has been identified as the region which will develop the most, contributing to over 50 percent of the increase in traveller numbers. Since last year’s forecast, 2022 has now been calculated to be the year when China will displace the USA as the world’s largest aviation market, based on passengers flying from, into and within the country. As far as other major domestic markets are concerned, the UK is expected to be overtaken by India in 2025 and Indonesia in 2030 in the number of travellers. Beyond that, France and Italy will drop out of the top ten, being surpassed by Thailand and Turkey.
The projected numbers are heavily dependent on maximizing the potential benefits of aviation growth. Consequently, current levels of trade liberalization and visa facilitation need to be maintained. If trade protectionism and travel restrictions become a factor, benefits of air connectivity may decline as growth could slow to 2.7%, resulting 1.1 billion fewer passenger journeys annually in 2036. Conversely, if moves towards liberalization increase, annual growth could be more than two percentage points faster, which will lead to a tripling in passenger numbers over the next 20 years.