Airbus expects long-term demand for air travel to remain strong over the next two decades, driven by urbanisation, economic growth and the continued expansion of the global middle class, according to its 2026-2045 Global Market Forecast.
The aircraft manufacturer predicts that growth will increasingly come from smaller cities rather than major metropolitan centres. Rising incomes, expanding middle-class populations and larger diaspora communities are expected to create demand for new direct air links between smaller and medium-sized cities. More efficient aircraft and growing passenger numbers are making these routes commercially viable, while aviation continues to play a vital role in connecting people, supporting trade and sustaining regional economies.
Airbus believes airline networks will become more decentralised as smaller urban centres grow almost three times faster than larger cities. Aircraft such as the A220, A321neo, A321XLR, A330neo and A350 are already enabling airlines to operate new point-to-point routes that were previously uneconomical. Examples include Lisbon to Recife, Dublin to Nashville, Algiers to Kuala Lumpur and Taipei to Phoenix.
The company’s product strategy reflects these market trends. Airbus currently has an order backlog of around 9,000 aircraft, supporting planned production increases across its entire commercial aircraft portfolio. More than 70% of outstanding A320-family orders are for the larger A321neo and A321XLR, which are well suited to serving new city pairs. The A330neo and A350 are expected to meet growing demand on higher-capacity and long-haul routes, while the A350 Freighter is also gaining traction in the air cargo market.
Passenger demand is forecast to remain resilient despite short-term challenges such as geopolitical tensions and volatile fuel prices. Airbus expects global passenger traffic to grow by an average of 3.9% annually until 2045, supported by projected GDP growth of 2.6% a year, an additional 1.3 billion people living in urban areas and a further 1.4 billion people joining the middle class. As a result, annual passenger numbers are forecast to more than double to around ten billion by 2045.
The Asia-Pacific region is expected to account for much of this growth, reflecting the increasing economic importance of countries including India, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia. Airbus also expects international migration and travel to visit friends and relatives to become increasingly important drivers of passenger demand.
To meet future requirements, Airbus forecasts demand for 42,060 new aircraft over the next 20 years. This includes 19,820 aircraft replacing older models and 22,240 aircraft supporting market growth. Around 81% of deliveries are expected to be single-aisle aircraft, with the remaining 19% comprising wide-body jets, reflecting airlines’ preference for more fuel-efficient and lower-emission fleets.
Fleet renewal is expected to accelerate as airlines replace ageing aircraft introduced before and shortly after the pandemic. Airbus forecasts that by 2045 almost the entire global commercial fleet will consist of the latest generation of aircraft, compared with around 39% in 2026, significantly improving fuel efficiency, operating economics and environmental performance.
