Airbus’ 2026 Cargo Global Market Forecast projects the worldwide fleet of dedicated freighter aircraft to grow by 46%, from 2,360 in 2026 to 3,460 by 2045, as announced at the Cargo Facts Symposium.
According to the forecast, 2,670 freighters will be required over the period, primarily to replace older aircraft (1,580) and to meet growth in demand (1,090).
Of the 2,670 aircraft required, 1,140 will be single-aisle freighters, 860 mid-size widebodies and 670 large widebodies. Some 970 aircraft will be new-build, while 1,700 will be passenger-to-freighter conversions.
With long-term trade projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.9%, global air cargo traffic is forecast to grow by 3.2% annually over the next two decades. Despite high fuel prices, ongoing geopolitical disruptions and supply chain constraints, air freight has demonstrated resilience.
Although air cargo accounts for less than 1% of global trade by volume, it carries more than 30% of total trade by value, making it a vital transport mode for goods requiring the fastest routes to market. Over the past three years, the value of computers and high-technology goods transported by air has doubled, accounting for 15% of air cargo in 2026. E-commerce and the use of air freight as an alternative to shipping for certain goods are also driving demand.
Asia-Pacific will remain the leading region for international air cargo traffic, with routes to North America representing the largest market and forecast to grow by 3.8% annually, followed by routes to Europe. Airbus says these routes can be served efficiently by its latest freighter, the A350F.
North America and Asia-Pacific will lead regional demand for the 2,670 freighters, requiring 925 and 850 aircraft respectively. Together, they will account for around two-thirds of global demand.
Demand in Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is forecast to reach 515 aircraft, followed by Latin America with 165, the Middle East with 125 and Africa with 90.
Over the next 20 years, increasing numbers of previous-generation freighters are expected to be retired and replaced by more fuel-efficient, next-generation aircraft. These will include new-build models such as the A350F, alongside passenger-to-freighter conversions across the A320, A321 and A330 families, helping operators reduce fuel consumption and carbon emissions.
