China is set to more than double its commercial airplane fleet by 2043 as the country's aviation industry expands and modernises to meet the growing demand for both passenger and cargo air travel. This projection comes from Boeing's 2024 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) for China, a comprehensive long-term forecast of the country's commercial aviation needs.
According to Darren Hulst, Boeing's Vice President of Commercial Marketing, “China's commercial aviation market for passengers and cargo continues to expand, driven by economic growth and airlines building their in-country networks. As this forecast shows, China's airlines will see strong demand, requiring further growth of their modern, fuel-efficient fleets.”
The CMO predicts that China's commercial fleet will grow at an annual rate of 4.1%, expanding from 4,345 to 9,740 airplanes by 2043. Additionally, annual passenger traffic is expected to grow by 5.9%, surpassing the global average of 4.7%. This growth will be fuelled by airlines increasing their networks, linking major hubs with smaller cities.
The forecast also highlights that air travel in China is poised to become the world's largest traffic flow, driving significant growth in the single-aisle fleet, which will comprise more than three-quarters of new deliveries. Moreover, China is expected to have the world's largest wide-body fleet, with a demand for 1,575 new wide-body airplanes. The country's freighter fleet, including both dedicated and converted models, is predicted to nearly triple, spurred by the booming e-commerce sector.
In addition to fleet expansion, the forecast identifies further growth potential within China's aviation industry. Chinese carriers are projected to require aviation services valued at US$780 billion to support the growing fleet, encompassing digital solutions, maintenance and modifications. Furthermore, the industry will need to hire and train nearly 430,000 new personnel to accommodate the expansion, including pilots, maintenance technicians and cabin crew.
